![]() ![]() ![]() At the same time, I don't think he wants to pre-commit to a July hike."įinding the balance between enough aggression to bring down inflation while not tanking the economy is the Fed's ultimate goal. "The press conference is likely to emphasize that just because we did not hike at a given meeting, that does not mean that we're done hiking," said Dean Maki, head economist at Point72. There's wide expectation that he'll take a cautious tone, emphasizing the importance of bringing down inflation rather than focusing too much on the FOMC deciding to pass on a rate hike. So we're just going to pause here." The Powell presserĪfter the statement and projections are released, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be up next to field questions from the press and explain the intentions behind the actions. "It also recognizes that there's a lag between what we do and when it shows up in the economy and inflation. Market expectations are that the growth outlook likely will improve, even though the Fed's own economists said in March and June that they expect a credit contraction to trigger a shallow recession later this year.Ĭommunication from the Fed, then, likely will be, "We're not convinced that this is the end of the rate hikes, but we want to take a look around see what kind of damage the banking crisis has inflicted on the economy," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. The last time the dots were updated, at the March gathering, there was a wide disparity among where members stood, with seven of 18 FOMC members expecting rates to go higher than the current range.Īlong with the dots, members will update the Summary of Economic Projections, which lists the outlook for gross domestic product, the unemployment rate and inflation as gauged by the personal consumption expenditures price index. The general chatter - reflected in market pricing - is that the dots will "move up" and indicate an additional rate hike this year, likely at the July 25-26 meeting. If a hawkish pause indeed becomes the order of the day, that will send investors looking to the "dot plot," a chart of individual members' expectations of where rates are headed from here. Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit ![]()
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